2025 Hyper Recent •CC0 1.0 Universal

This work is dedicated to the public domain. No rights reserved.

Access Preprint From Server
May 9th, 2025
Version: 2
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
evolutionary biology
biorxiv

Beyond urbanization metrics: Using graphical causal models to investigate mechanisms in urban ecology and evolution

Borden, J. B.Open in Google Scholar•Gibbs, J.Open in Google Scholar•Vanek, J. P.Open in Google Scholar•Cosentino, B.Open in Google Scholar

As the fastest-growing form of land use, urbanization drives profound environmental change that reshapes biodiversity. Studies in urban ecology and evolution often rely on generic indices of urbanization to characterize biodiversity patterns along urban-rural gradients. However, these indices do not permit explicit tests of causal hypotheses by which urbanization mediates ecological and evolutionary processes. Here, we show how a graphical causal modeling framework with directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) can be used to design clear conceptual models to better evaluate mechanistic hypotheses about the effects of urbanization on biodiversity. We introduce the basic structure of DAGs and illustrate their value, first with simulated data and then with a case study on coat color variation in eastern gray squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) along an urbanization gradient in Syracuse, New York, USA. We show how univariate statistical models with generic urbanization predictors are difficult to interpret and can lead to misleading conclusions about mechanisms in urban ecology and evolution. In contrast, DAGs make causal assumptions transparent and can point to specific processes driving biodiversity patterns. When applied to our case study, analyses informed by a DAG revealed a surprising finding: although squirrel melanism was more prevalent in urban than rural populations, the prevalence of melanism was constrained by components of environmental change common to cities, namely roads, forest loss, and predator activity, in contrast to expectations. Managing biodiversity in an increasingly urbanized world will require a mechanistic understanding of how urbanization impacts biodiversity patterns; graphical causal models can provide a powerful approach to do so.

Similar Papers

biorxiv
Sat May 10 2025
Trophic eggs affect caste determination in the ant Pogonomyrmex rugosus
Understanding how a single genome creates distinct phenotypes remains a fundamental challenge for biologists. Social insects provide a striking example of polyphenism, with queen and worker castes exhibiting morphological, behavioural, and reproductive differences. Here we show that trophic eggs, which do not contain an embryo and are primarily regarded as a source of food, play a role in the proc...
Genzoni, E.
•
Schwander, T.
•
Keller, L.
biorxiv
Sat May 10 2025
Sponges, ctenophores and the statistical significance of syntenies
Shared fusions between ancestral chromosomal linkage groups have previously been used to support phylogenetic groupings, notably sponges with cnidarians and bilaterians to the exclusion of ctenophores, rendering ctenophores the sister group to all other animals. The linkage groups used to identify these fusions were assessed for statistical significance relative to a model of randomly shuffled gen...
Copley, R. R.
biorxiv
Sat May 10 2025
The Evolutionary Landscape of tRNA Modifications in Archaea: Insights from High-Throughput Sequencing
Transfer RNA (tRNA) modifications play essential roles in structure, stability and decoding accuracy, yet the evolutionary dynamics and diversity of these modifications remain incompletely understood. Recent advances in high-throughput sequencing, including Ordered Two-Template Relay sequencing (OTTR-seq), now facilitate systematic, transcriptome-wide detection of tRNA modifications at single-base...
Leavitt, J. S.
•
Moore, H.
•
Santangelo, T. J.
•
Lowe, T. M.
biorxiv
Fri May 09 2025
Conserved and lineage-restricted gene regulatory programs modulate developmental cnidocyte specification in Nematostella vectensis.
Abstract: Cnidocytes are a synapomorphy of cnidarians that have evolved a range of morphologies and functions within and across extant species, which makes them an excellent model to investigate how novel cell types emerge and radiate in evolution. One way to gain insight into how cell types evolve is to investigate the gene regulatory networks (GRNs) that pattern them, leading to the identificati...
Danladi, B.
•
Al-Shaer, L.
•
Havrilak, J. A.
•
Faltine-Gonzalez, D. Z.
...•
Layden, M. J.
biorxiv
Fri May 09 2025
Resource distribution unifies optimal offspring size and bacterial aging
Models of optimal offspring size and bacterial aging share the same underlying mathematical problem: how should a parent optimally distribute limited resources among its offspring? Optimal offspring size theory has long explored the trade-off between offspring number and size in higher organisms. Meanwhile, the emerging field of bacterial aging examines whether and under what conditions cells evol...
Sakal, T.
•
Proulx, S. R.
biorxiv
Fri May 09 2025
Lineage-Specific Evolution, Structural Diversity, and Activity of R2 Retrotransposons in Animals
Retrotransposons play outsized roles in the evolution of gene regulation, genome function, and disease pathogenesis and more recently, have sparked interest as workhorses for new gene therapy approaches. R2 retrotransposons insert site-specifically to the multicopy genes encoding 28S ribosomal RNA at a target sequence conserved broadly across eukaryotic evolution. R2 retrotransposons have been det...
Hassan, N. T.
•
Van Treeck, B.
•
Rodriguez-Vargas, A.
•
Sheppard, A. E.
...•
Collins, K.
biorxiv
Fri May 09 2025
Novel artificial selection method improves function of simulated microbial communities
There is increasing interest in artificially selecting or breeding microbial communities, but experiments have reported modest success. Here, we develop computational models to simulate two previously known selection methods and compare them to a new ``disassembly'' method. We evaluate all three methods in their ability to find a community that could efficiently degrade toxins, whereby investment ...
Vessman, B.
•
Guridi-Fernandez, P.
•
Arias-Sanchez, F. I.
•
Mitri, S.
biorxiv
Fri May 09 2025
Hatcheries to high seas: climate change connections to salmon marine survival
We investigated variations in the marine survival of Japanese hatchery chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) during 25 years of climate change (1998-2023). Japan is the world largest producer of hatchery salmon, and is located near the global southern distribution limit of chum salmon. Our goal was to identify local and context-specific metrics related to the observed coastwide decline in salmon marine ...
Kitada, S.
•
Myers, K. W.
•
Kishino, H.
biorxiv
Fri May 09 2025
Evolutionary implications of plant host interactions with a generalist pathogen
It is widely believed that eco-evolutionary feedbacks arising from host-pathogen interactions shape the number and frequency of resistance (R) genotypes and the allelic polymorphism that they harbor. A subset of R genes exhibit unusually strong signatures of balancing selection, sometimes even existing as trans-specific polymorphism. Here, we explore the role of alternative hosts on R gene evoluti...
Maerkle, H.
•
Bergelson, J.
biorxiv
Fri May 09 2025
Genetically diverse populations hold the keys to climatic adaptation: a lesson from a cosmopolitan raptor
Although local adaptation influences species distributions, its role in driving evolutionary resilience under climate change remains unclear. Current predictive models focus on genetic adaptation to present climates, providing limited insight into future adaptive capacity. We hypothesise that historical responses to climatic shifts can reveal future adaptive potential. Combining ecological niche m...
Corval, H.
•
Cumer, T.
•
Topaloudis, A.
•
Collart, F.
...•
Goudet, J.