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April 1st, 2025
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evolutionary biology
biorxiv

Highly pathogenic avian influenza management in high-density poultry farming areas

Guinat, C.Open in Google Scholar•Valuenzuela Agui, C.Open in Google Scholar•Briand, F.-X.Open in Google Scholar•Chakraborty, D.Open in Google Scholar•Fourtune, L.Open in Google Scholar•Lambert, S.Open in Google Scholar•Jimenez Pellicer, A.Open in Google Scholar•Rautureau, S.Open in Google Scholar•Gerbier, G.Open in Google Scholar•du Plessis, L.Open in Google Scholaret al.

The continuous spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses poses significant challenges, particularly in regions with high poultry farm densities where conventional control measures are less effective. Using phylogeographic and phylodynamic tools, we analysed virus spread in Southwestern France in 2020-21, a region with recurrent outbreaks. Following a single introduction, the virus spread regionally, mostly affecting duck farms, peaking in mid-December with a velocity of 27.8 km/week and an effective reproduction number between farms (Re) of 3.8, suggesting the virus can spread beyond current control radii. Transmission declined after late December following preventive culling. Farm infectiousness was estimated around 9 days. Duck farm density was the main driver of virus spread and we identified farm density and proximity thresholds required to maintain effective control (Re < 1). These findings offer actionable guidance to support regional biosecurity and to improve the robustness of the poultry sector to mitigate future outbreaks.

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